Loading…
Why BEAR is built this way
BEAR reverses the habits that usually wreck decisions, in an order that makes them hard to skip.
The six rules
1. Name the decision before you weigh anything.
Most bad decisions are good answers to the wrong question. If you can't write it in one sentence, you're not ready.
2. Keep facts and assumptions in separate lists.
A “probably” from your manager feels like a yes by Friday. Written under Assumed, it stays a probably.
3. Write down what's missing.
Nobody does this unprompted, and often the deciding fact is a phone call away. If it's missing, the answer is “not yet”.
4. Judge every option on the same evidence.
Otherwise the option you secretly prefer brings the best facts. Waiting and doing nothing are options too.
5. Allow “not yet” as an ending.
With only one ending, you have to invent certainty. A leaning stays a leaning. It doesn't get rounded up.
6. Write what would change your mind before you act.
After you choose, everything looks like support for the choice. New facts go back in at Evidence.
An example
An invented one. A small firm is choosing between Asha and Ravi for an operations lead. Everyone likes Ravi because he “can handle chaos”, but nobody has called his references. So on a BEAR sheet that goes under Assumed, not Known.
The Missing list gets one line: how each of them has run things with no team behind them. That's two phone calls, one for each. The answer moves from “Ravi, by lunch” to “not yet, two calls this week”.
What we left out on purpose
- A score. People would argue about the number instead of the evidence.
- A weighting formula. You'd tune the weights until you got the answer you wanted.
- A fixed list of questions. The right questions depend on the decision. The lists stay fixed.
Where it comes from
BEAR isn't the result of a published study, and we don't claim one. It's built on three old practices: write the decision down, separate what you know from what you assume, and name what would change your mind before you act. We added the order, the five lists and the three endings.
Bear Decide shows all its working, so you can check the reasoning yourself.
What it doesn't claim
It doesn't make a decision right. It makes the reasoning visible, so a wrong one is easier to catch. It doesn't replace knowing the subject, and a person still owns the call. For anything legal, medical, structural or tax, it prepares you for the expert.