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Frameworks · BEAR
A way to make any decision well.
Baseline, Evidence, Assess, Resolve. Four steps that work for a job offer, a hire, a move or a business bet. The whole method is below, free to use with a pen and paper. Or let Bear Decide work through it with you in a few minutes.
What BEAR is
Deliberate. Grounded. Not easily pushed around.
BEAR is a method, not a formula. It doesn’t score your decision or hand you a number. It makes you look at the situation, the evidence and the options in the same order every time, so that the decision rests on what is true rather than on what is loud.
It has one rule above the rest: don’t manufacture certainty. If the evidence isn’t enough, the honest answer is “not yet, and here is what would settle it”.
And it never decides for you. It makes sure you understand the decision you’re making. You still decide.
When to use it
Any decision with real options and real consequences.
Your work
Taking an offer, asking for a raise, changing roles, going freelance.
Your team
Choosing between two candidates, restructuring, letting someone go, who leads a project.
Your business
A new supplier, a price change, a hire you can just about afford, a market to enter.
Your life
Moving city, a course to study, a big purchase, a family decision with many opinions.
How to use it yourself
The four steps, and what to gather for each.
Take a sheet of paper and four headings. Work through them in order. Don’t skip to Resolve — the first three steps are where most decisions are actually won.
Baseline
What is the situation, and what decision are we actually trying to make?
Most bad decisions answer the wrong question. Before weighing anything, pin down what is really being decided and what is true right now.
What to gather
- The decision in one sentence — a choice between named options, or a yes or no.
- What is happening now: the facts of the situation, not how you feel about them.
- The outcome you want. What would a good result look like in six months?
- Your limits — money, time, rules, people, and the things you won’t do.
- Who decides, who is affected, and when the decision has to be made by.
You should end with: A short paragraph: the situation, the exact decision, the goal and the limits. If you can’t write it, you’re not ready to decide yet.
The usual mistake: Deciding “should I quit?” when the real question is “how do I get a better manager?”
Evidence
What do we actually know, what don’t we know, and what matters?
Decisions go wrong when an assumption is treated as a fact. This step sorts what you have, so you can see how solid the ground is.
What to gather
- Known — facts you could show someone: numbers, documents, offers in writing, what was said and by whom.
- Assumed — things you are taking for granted without proof.
- Uncertain — things that could go either way.
- Missing — information that would matter but you don’t have.
- Contradictory — anything that conflicts with something else you’ve been told.
You should end with: Five short lists. The “assumed” and “missing” lists are usually the most valuable thing you’ll write.
The usual mistake: Writing “the promotion is coming” under Known when your manager only said “probably”.
Assess
Given the evidence, what does it tell us?
Every option is weighed against the same things — your goal, your limits, your preferences and the risks — so the comparison is fair.
What to gather
- Every realistic option, including waiting and doing nothing.
- For each option: what is for it, what is against it, and what could go wrong.
- How reversible each option is, and what it costs to undo.
- The one or two trade-offs that really decide it — usually you can’t have everything.
You should end with: Your options side by side, and a plain sentence naming the main trade-off.
The usual mistake: Only comparing the two options you started with, and never asking what a third would look like.
Resolve
What is the most defensible decision, and why?
This is where you decide — or admit honestly that you can’t yet. Both are useful. Pretending to be sure is not.
What to gather
- The option the evidence supports best, and two or three sentences saying why.
- What would change your mind. Name it now, while you’re calm.
- If the evidence isn’t enough: exactly what information you need, how to get it, and whether you can afford to wait.
- When you’ll look at it again.
You should end with: A decision you could explain to someone you respect — or a short list of what you need before you can make one.
The usual mistake: Picking the answer you wanted before you started, then writing the reasons afterwards.
The one-page sheet
Copy this onto paper and fill it in.
Everything above, on one page. Fill the boxes in order. If you can’t fill a line, that’s worth knowing too — it usually belongs under “Missing”.
B · Baseline
- The decision, in one sentence:
- What is true right now:
- A good result in six months looks like:
- My limits (money, time, rules, people, won’t-do):
- Who decides · who is affected · decide by:
E · Evidence
- Known (I could show someone):
- Assumed:
- Uncertain:
- Missing:
- Contradicts something else:
A · Assess
- Every realistic option (including wait, or do nothing):
- For each — for · against · what could go wrong:
- How easy to undo, and what undoing costs:
- The trade-off that really decides it:
R · Resolve
- Decision — or “not yet”:
- Because:
- I would change my mind if:
- Still need to find out:
- I’ll look at this again on:
Two worked examples
One ends in a decision. One ends in “not yet”.
A job offer in another city.
Baseline. Take a confirmed offer in Pune at 30% more, or stay in Nashik for a promotion expected next year. The goal is long-term growth. Rent in Pune is about double.
Evidence. Known: the offer is in writing. Assumed: the promotion will happen — the manager only said “probably”. Missing: what you would actually save each month after rent.
Assess. Pune: bigger clients and more pay, but higher costs and further from family. Nashik: familiar and close to home, but the raise isn’t promised. The real trade-off is certain growth now against a possible raise later.
Resolve. Lean towards Pune — if a simple monthly budget shows the move pays its way. Do that budget before you sign. If it doesn’t add up, the answer changes.
Choosing between two people for one role.
Baseline. A small firm is hiring one operations lead. Two finalists: Asha, eight years at a large company, and Ravi, three years at a start-up. The goal is someone who can run things alone within three months. The budget covers one salary, and the decision is due in two weeks.
Evidence. Known: both interviewed well, and Asha’s salary ask is 15% over budget. Assumed: Ravi “can handle chaos” — nobody has asked his references. Uncertain: whether Asha would accept less. Missing: how either has handled running things without a team behind them.
Assess. Asha: depth and process, but over budget and used to having support staff. Ravi: in budget and used to doing everything, but the key claim about him is an assumption. The deciding question — who can run things alone — is exactly the one the evidence doesn’t answer.
Resolve. Not yet. Before deciding, call Ravi’s references about working alone, and ask Asha directly whether the budget works for her. Both can be done this week, and the deadline allows it.
Five habits that make it work
The method is simple. These keep it honest.
Write it down.
A decision held in your head changes shape every time you think about it. On paper, it stays still long enough to look at.
Label everything as known or assumed.
Most bad decisions rest on one assumption nobody wrote down. Writing “assumed” next to it is often enough to see it.
Match the effort to the stakes.
A decision that is cheap to undo needs ten minutes. One you can’t take back deserves all four steps, and a night’s sleep before Resolve.
“Not yet” is an answer.
If the evidence doesn’t support a decision, say so — and name exactly what would. Don’t manufacture certainty.
Decide what would change your mind before you decide.
Once you’ve chosen, everything starts to look like support for it. Name the warning signs while you’re still neutral.
Bear Decide
The same method, done with you in minutes.
Doing it on paper works, and you’re welcome to. Bear Decide is for when you’d rather not spend the hour — or when you suspect you’re too close to the decision to spot your own assumptions.
| What | On paper | With Bear Decide |
|---|---|---|
| The method | The four steps, in order. | The same four steps, in the same order. |
| The questions you didn’t think to ask | Only the ones you think of yourself. | Bear reads what you’ve written and asks what’s missing for your kind of decision. |
| Sorting known from assumed | Up to you — and your own assumptions are the hardest to spot. | Bear does the sorting, and shows you which of your “facts” are really assumptions. |
| What Kirnova knows about you | Not used. | Your Kirnova results are taken into account, so the advice fits how you actually work. |
| Time | An hour or more for a big decision. | A few minutes of answering questions. |
| Coming back to it | Wherever you put the paper. | Saved to your account. Reopen it, tell Bear what changed, and it reassesses. |
| Who decides | You. | You. Bear informs; it never decides for you. |
What you get back
The answer first. Then everything behind it.
Bear first asks about anything it still needs to know. Then you get one card: where the evidence points, why, what would change it — and the four steps worked through underneath, so you can check the reasoning.
Questions
Before you start.
Can I really use BEAR without Bear Decide?
Yes. Everything on this page is yours to use — on paper, in a notebook, with your team or with your clients. You don’t need an account.
Does Bear make the decision for me?
No. Bear works through the four steps with you and tells you where the evidence points — or that it doesn’t point anywhere yet. The decision is always yours.
What does Bear Decide cost?
It’s currently free.
Why do I have to sign in?
So your decision is saved and you can come back to it, and so Bear can take into account what Kirnova already knows about you. What you’ve typed is kept — you won’t have to type it again.
What if Bear says “not enough to decide yet”?
Then that’s the honest answer, and Bear tells you exactly what you’d need to find out. A confident answer built on missing evidence is worse than none.
What kinds of decisions can I bring?
Any decision with real options — about your work, your team, your business or your life. The bigger the decision, the more the four steps help.
Currently free
Got a decision? Try Bear Decide.
Tell Bear about it below. Only the first box is needed — the more you add, the fewer questions Bear asks. You’ll sign in next, and Bear picks it up from there: it asks what it still needs to know, then works through all four steps with you.