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How BEAR fits together
Each step makes one thing the next step needs, and there's a way back in when something changes.
Why this order
Baseline comes first because you can't sort evidence until you know what it's for. Evidence comes before Assess so every option is judged on the same facts. Resolve comes last, so the answer doesn't come first.
Baseline
What is the situation, and what decision are we actually trying to make?
Hands over
one clear decision, with its goal and limits
Evidence
What do we actually know, what don’t we know, and what matters?
Hands over
five lists: known, assumed, uncertain, missing, contradictory
Assess
Given the evidence, what does it tell us?
Hands over
the options side by side, and the trade-off that decides it
Resolve
What is the most defensible decision, and why?
Hands over
a decision, a leaning, or “not yet”, with what would change it
What each step needs and makes
B · Baseline
Needs: The situation as it stands.
Makes: One clear decision, with its goal, its limits, who decides and by when.
E · Evidence
Needs: The Baseline. You can't sort evidence until you know what it's evidence for.
Makes: Five lists: known, assumed, uncertain, missing and contradictory.
A · Assess
Needs: The five lists, so every option is judged on the same evidence.
Makes: The realistic options side by side, with what's for and against each, the risks, and the trade-off that decides it.
R · Resolve
Needs: The options and the trade-off.
Makes: A decision, a leaning or “not yet”, with the reason, what would change it, and what to find out next.
The three endings
Bear Decide uses the same three, with the same names.
- Decided
Decided
The evidence supports one option. Act, and write down what would change your mind.
- Leaning
Leaning
The evidence points one way, not firmly. Name the one thing holding it back, and get it if it's cheap.
- Not yet
Not yet
The deciding question is the one your evidence doesn't answer. List what you need and by when.
When something changes
An invented case: a Pune job offer against a Nashik promotion. On Sunday you end on “leaning Pune, if the budget works”. On Tuesday the promotion arrives in writing, with a 20% raise.
That letter goes back in at Evidence. The promotion moves from Assumed to Known, the pay gap drops from about 30% to 10%, and Resolve changes to “leaning Nashik”. In Bear Decide, you tell Bear what changed and it reassesses.
What it doesn't do
It doesn't fix a badly framed decision, create evidence you don't have, or take responsibility. The person who writes the Resolve line owns it. For decisions about people, TIGER readings can sit in Evidence, but they never make the call.